Some Data On Substack's Network Effects
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Some Data On Substack's Network Effects
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I just crossed 200 paid subscribers on Substack (woohoo! 🎉) along with 100 posts on Substack (woohoo! 🎉) and wanted to share something that I've been suspecting for a bit about Substack's network effects.
First—How I Built to 200 Subscribers
Many of the people who are technically “paid subscribers” are actually here from other avenues—two specific promotions I did in my business:
Back in 2021, I had a huge book bundle on sale and the founding of my Substack was to keep those subs updated on changes to the books (since changes would come out faster than book updates themselves). I added them in with forever subscriptions (all that was available at the time—now, there are paid trial options). At the time, I had no idea what this Substack might grow into, or even what the Substack platform might grow into, and I am considering if/when those forever subscriptions should expire.
In summer 2022, I wasn't writing this newsletter regularly and paid subscriptions were not turned on for Author Analyst (at the time called “Aggressively Wide”). I added a year's subscription as a bonus to one of my Kickstarter tiers just to increase my value stack there. Those subscriber paid trials will expire in January 2024.
So my numbers are definitely skewed from those two efforts, but I count them as paid subscribers because those people did pay much, much more than the cost of a subscription. No one got a free ride or anything.
All of that said, I do have a substantial portion of that 200 now who actually subscribed through Substack (getting closer to the 100 mark, which gives you a checkmark on Substack) and that is what my data is based on. I really appreciate this platform and love my direct subscribers, and want to make sure that eventually, the majority of my subscribers have gone through Substack (and Substack has gotten its cut).
A little under half of my paid subscribers are directly through Substack at the moment, so I have some ways to go!
Substack’s Organic Reach and Discoverability Options
One thing people will tell you about Substack is that it has incredible network effects. That is 100% true. Nearly half of my non-import subscribers (imported being people who came from my previous list) came from in-network efforts, aka Substack sending people to my publication. The other half came from me sending people to my publication.
But what is the value of an in-network Substack free subscriber? That has been something I've been questioning. And I will say, there is plenty to debate on this, because Substack has given me their email address and email addresses are valuable. Further, I can monetize my Substack in many ways besides paid subscriptions. So without question, there is value to simply having more reach and bigger numbers. And those subscribers are definitely engaged, too!
AND. I looked at my data this morning and I'm not surprised at all by what I found. Only about 10% of my direct paid subs (people actually paying through Substack) come from the pool of people I found on Substack. The other 90% of my direct paid subs (people actually paying through Substack) come from people who I found off the platform.
Of the 90%, about 60% already had an account at Substack and were familiar with its features (and about 35% of *those* people were subbed to another newsletter already). It’s hard to tell from Substack whether these people came from in-network, but as I understand it, they aren’t part of the organic reach, they are just people who were on Substack already (or possibly had a credit card on file) that then joined my newsletter.
The other 40% were people who were new accounts to Substack.
All of this confirms what I had a hunch about...
Most of the people that I've found in-network on Substack are unlikely to become paid subscribers of MY publication. In many cases, they are reading 25+ other Substacks. I regularly see subscribers who are reading 100+ or even 200+ Substacks! There’s nothing wrong with this, and there is a ton of other value to having a bigger newsletter and more reach.
However, I’m noting that a challenge with any discoverability on a subscriptions platform. The hardcore users are more likely to subscribe to a free tier and not as likely to be subscribing to dozens of newsletters. (Someone who has a dozen subscriptions at $5 a month is paying $60 a month or $720 a year. That's a lot!) And it’s making me realize that any discoverability algorithm on a subscriptions platform will have many of the same challenges that retailer discoverability has.
I’ve spent a lot of time focusing on off-network subscribers who are relevant to my audience (authors). I’ve spent less time studying the network effects on Substack’s platform.
A Few Things That Contribute To My Unique Newsletter Breakdown
I never want to make too broad of strokes when sharing data like this. There are several unique-to-my-subscription factors that may be causing the skew:
My newsletter is for part- and full-time authors - Many Substack users are also writers, which is fantastic for my newsletter growth—but they aren’t necessarily authors or at a point where they can implement the content I’m sharing. It doesn’t make sense for the average person to pay for a professional newsletter. Perhaps if my subject matter was broader, it would be more appealing to the general Substack community.
My pricing is higher than average - At $10/month or $100/year, my newsletter is priced at double what most newsletters on the platform are, and I'm about to move to triple the norm in October as I move to $15/month for new subscribers and add a few extra things. That makes the climb in subscribers harder, but I also love the slow and steady of subscriptions too much to give it up. That said, hardcore Substack users may be turned off by the pricing because they have a lot of data to compare it to.
I don’t cater to the Substack audience - My friend
is far more interested in studying Substack than I am, and he has noted to me that if I just got involved in the conversation on Substack, I’d do a better job of contributing to it (and thus, picking up more in-network subscribers). The challenge for me is that I started Author Analyst for a specific purpose, back when Substack wasn’t even the platform it is today (Notes was not even on the horizon). Author Analyst is a publication that is very set in how it runs, and what it talks about. If I were to start again and create a subscription more suited to Substack, I would agree on this front! As it is, I don’t particularly find Notes interesting, and I don’t get involved in the conversations on Substack. My other nonfiction business is actually much broader and I think, of general public interest, so I’ll be looking into this more with that topic! But this Substack was always conceived outside the Substack environment and is very much hosted on Substack, but not really a typical Substack publication. It could be hosted anywhere, frankly!
My data is really only one data point, and that is often why I don’t share data in the first place—I find myself picking apart my own conclusions to try to explain them!
All of this is to say that even when you have interesting data, it’s good to have self-awareness too. Know the limitations and ceilings of your project and get real with yourself about what is going to work well for it, along with what isn’t. Your own data usually doesn’t apply to everyone—it doesn’t even apply to most people.
Where I Go From Here
I have almost exactly 4 months to find another 50ish subscribers to hit my goal for 2023, and I'm definitely brainstorming some creative ways to get there.
But you may be surprised to hear that I’m actually launching a second major solo subscription…On Ream!
Author Analyst is very business and industry focused, but I’ll be combining my spirituality nonfiction business (started shortly before the pandemic, but which I’ve completely ignored for the past 2-3 years) and my fiction pen name Solo Storm (ignored for even longer!) in one Ream subscription. I have a few reasons why I’m doing it this way, and I’ll be breaking it all down in a future post.
I’m still (slowly) working on my Solo Storm Substack, and that won’t be going anywhere…
But Substack has some limitations and challenges that I’m finding cumbersome for running that subscription the way I want. I always knew that I would need Ream and/or Patreon to supplement the Substack subscription and all that I wanted to offer.
You can also follow me on my Ream subscription here: https://reamstories.com/lovelightlioness/public
As I’ve written many times before, I am not tied to a platform. In many ways, I believe in “wide” across all efforts, even subscriptions.
But it is challenging when the platforms all operate a bit differently! So I’m feeling my way through how to invest energy into multiple subscriptions.